Sunday, April 5, 2020

China and South Korea


Both countries were hard hit by the coronavirus.  It first appeared in China.  Both countries instituted firm lockdowns, much firmer than we've done here.  The "curves flattened" in both countries, and once that appeared to be happening, and fewer people per day were becoming positive, and getting sick, socializing of various kinds was opened up.  People could begin to gather again, and people in various walks of life began to return to business.  This even included some street vendors in the Wuhan district of China, where the pandemic appears to have begun.

Both countries more or less quickly saw new cases, and they saw the curves turn up again.  I have not seen anything about what they intend to do about that, but I'm assuming the answer is obvious: reinstitute lockdowns.

I don't know, and I don't think anyone knows, how long this will take, or what will have to be done to try to gain control of this pandemic.  The virus is powerful, and it propagates somewhat easily.  The only answer is isolation.  Ideally, in any area, everyone would get tested, and everyone who is positive would be isolated for the right period of time (seems to be anywhere from about one week to over a month, depending on the case; it is not predictable) until the virus has run its course in that person.  And that course might include deterioration to the point of need for hospitalization, or it might include death.  But once continued testing shows no further active live virus, then the carrier can be part of society again.  And that person will have immunity.  It is unclear how long the immunity will last, and it is impossible to know if the virus will mutate into a virus just different enough that immunity to the original virus will no longer be protective.

It's sort of like the flu vaccine.  The flu vaccine anyone can get before flu season any year is essentially last year's flu vaccine.  It protects against getting last year's flu.  It does not protect against getting some new and related flu virus which did not exist in exactly that form last year.  It's not like polio vaccine or measles or other well-established vaccines, where vaccination means the vaccinated person will never get the disease in question.  If everyone got the available flu vaccine every year, that in no way means no one will get the flu.  They just won't get last year's flu.

The governors of many states-- but not ours, except belatedly and not with full conviction-- have instituted lockdowns.  That is the only answer.  No one with symptoms should leave the house at all, and everyone without symptoms should almost never leave the house, and very carefully if necessary.  If you need something from the grocery store, make a list before you go, do the store very efficiently and quickly, and get home.  I myself haven't been to the store in a few weeks, but I have to go tomorrow.  I'm told that most or all grocery stores now allow only a limited number of shoppers at a time, with monitoring to be sure people are distant from each other, and shoppers commonly stand on line outside until they're allowed in.  Standing on line is a bit fraught, because you don't know anything about the other people on line.

Life is not normal.  It isn't going to be normal, probably for a good deal of time.  I'm guessing at least a few months, but it might be many months.  But the fact is no one knows.  Any activity of people outside their homes, and especially if they congregate in groups, keeps propagation going, and it makes the whole problem take longer.  It increases the chance for infection, and for illness, and for death.

No one likes this.  We're all suffering.  But the one and only thing any of us can really do to try to gain control of it is to stay at home.  So stay at home.



1 comment:

  1. Now, here's a perfect example of the problem. I just got an e-mail from Fantasy Theater Factory, which presents their shows at the Sandrell Rivers Theater on NW 7th Avenue and 61st St. They say they want to resume programming when it's possible, and they're looking at May as a month when they think they can resume. Although they do say they're following guidelines. But whose guidelines? Donald Trump's?

    I would say absolutely not. Not in any way. It's way too soon. They're begging for the same trouble China and South Korea got.

    It's not a matter of when things are starting to slow down, but when this pandemic is under control. That depends on few cases, few new cases, and lots of testing. There is no possibility that will happen within the next month or month and a half. Three to four months? Maybe, but not super likely. Six months? Unclear. Possible.

    We are under seige for the long haul. We cannot let up. More damage will be done. The damage will be to the people who will newly become sick, and to the economy. It's not nearly done crashing.

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