Wednesday, December 10, 2014

It May Have Hit the Fan.


We've done a rough calculation, and we now think we don't have enough in the grant to do all the work of erecting an annex building and renovating the log cabin.  The question is, where will we get the rest of the money?

At the special Commission meeting last night, this question was raised, and preliminary attention was paid to it.  We considered three sources of money.  Well, four.  Unless someone seriously thinks it's five.

Let's take #5 first.  Barbara Watts wonders if we can find even more grants.  The State hasn't suckled us enough.  Someone else should suckle us more.  As far as I'm concerned, 'nuf said.

Bob Anderson's idea (#1) was that we (our Manager) should sharpen our/her pencil more, and find even more dispensible luxury in the budget.  Seven years ago, this was a great idea.  Now, after five years of excellent professional management, it doesn't make sense.  Ana Garcia did sweeping major surgery to Village finances.  The budget was about as tight as it could get.  Heidi Shafran went further.  We are now at the bone, and we cannot meet any but our most life-sustaining needs.  That said, we do have a visible (not generous) reserve which will be about $425K when the new ad valorem revenue starts to filter to us, which is about now.  We'll come to that reserve later.  In the meantime, Bob's proposal was general, or abstract.  He imagines asking the Manager to perform some sort of sleight of hand that will somehow result in a couple hundred thousand more dollars.

Bob's not the only person who looks at Village finances that way.  AJ Gallo, one of our neighbors, typically says the same thing.  But Gallo is specific.  At budget time, he proposes one expense or another he personally considers superfluous.  I get it.  I could look at the budget and do the same thing.  In fact, having spoken to various of our neighbors, I'm convinced that if each of us scoured the budget, we could each find a little here and a little there.  And they wouldn't all be the same superfluities.  If we add them together, we can probably eliminate almost everything in the budget.  We can have really low taxes, too.

But here's the problem.  What AJ Gallo considers superfluous, I, or you, might think essential.  And vice versa.  The fact is, we just created a nice budgetary savings, by outsourcing sanitation, and a number of people were very unhappy about it.  They think we went too far.  And now, we're trying to increase revenue by annexing another area, and again, there are complaints that we are ruining something about the Village.

So I think Bob is very wrong.  I think we've reduced everything that can reasonably be reduced, and any other effort gets too much blowback.  And besides, even attempting further reductions would not raise nearly enough money to cover the imagined shortfall for the construction projects.

Roxy Ross, David Coviello, and, to some extent, Bob Anderson thought we should borrow the shortfall (#2).  Here's my concern about that.  The Village doesn't make money.  It has no way to make money, other than to tax its residents.  So if we don't have the money now, we can't get it and the added debt service in the future, except by taxing ourselves higher.  If that's what we're to do, then let's just do it now, once.

My thinking is to use that $425K we have in reserve, and pay for the rest of the project ourselves (#3).  We actually have the money, and this is a good use for it, since we all agree to do the work.  Bob Anderson, and possibly unspoken others, are afraid to tap the reserves, but we have no use for them.  I would be delighted to use them for something else, like median improvement or any of a number of other projects, but it appears this is not going to happen.  So let's apply it to the annex/rehab.

David Coviello's other suggestion was that we perhaps hold off on part of the project, which will allow us to spend $126K less up front.  But we all agree we should ultimately spend it to complete the task, and Dave must have been thinking we would somehow eventually find the money in the future.  And I agree with Dave.  In fact, my other suggestion (#4) is that if we delay, we step up our efforts to succeed with our annexation attempt, and use the revenue from the annexed tracts to finish the construction job.

But the fact is, it's not necessary to delay, it's not necessary to beat an emaciated budget to death, it's not necessary to borrow money we can't exactly repay, and it's not necessary to wonder who else in the world, besides the citizens of Florida, love us and want to provide for us.  We can do it ourselves.  And in my opinion, we should.



14 comments:

  1. Fred, I may disagree a little here, in my view the best option is to finance the shortfall at a fixed interest rate with no prepay penalty. The interest rates at the moment are so low that financing makes more sense than paying it out from reserves. We really need those reserve funds for emergencies, we live in a storm prone area and one or two storms could devastate our reserves fast.

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  2. Jorge,

    Fixed interest is more than no interest. And since the Village does not make money from anything but ourselves (lacking annexation) we take on a responsibility we have no reason to expect we can discharge, and we add even low interest to compound it.

    Needing reserves for storm clean-up is an old ruse. Clean-up costs about $1M, or at least it did in 2005. We don't have $1M. We didn't have $1M then. We pay, as I understand it, on account, and we are eventually reimbursed for most of it by FEMA. You should also know that WastePro is available to help us with some of the extra burdens of storm clean-up, for an extra fee, of course.

    The fact is that unless we annex east of the tracks, we have no real way of repaying the loan we would take out. Plus or minus interest. Without annexation, which may or may not succeed, and which will now cost us a good deal of extra money to pursue, the only way we can repay a loan is to tax ourselves more. If that's what we're going to do, let's just do an assessment, and do it now.

    But I still say that if we don't need a reserve for hurricane clean-up, and if we refuse to spend it on anything else to help the Village, let's use it for the possible shortfall.

    Fred

    PS: I agree with you. It's by far best if we have a healthy reserve. But for a reason. It's for a rainy day. When the $1.1M runs out, it will be raining.

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  3. I may be wrong here, but I think if we cannot pay the loan out from an increase in revenues we can use a special non ad valorem tax, the county uses those all the time and we're paying them on our tax bill. This year I paid more in county and state taxes than on city operating taxes. The payments on that loan per residence will probably amount to 30 to 40 dollars a year?

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  4. Jorge,

    The Village finances are contributed to by several sources, including non ad valorem taxes. Whether we have a surplus or a deficit in a given year is the product of our total revenues and our total expenses for that year.

    What you might be suggesting is that we find a way to add more taxes, and call them non ad valorem. I'm not sure why it would make any difference whether we raised more revenue on an ad valorem or a non ad valorem basis. What about a simple assessment? Would that work for you? It could be ad valorem or non ad valorem. Although no one has any basis upon which to make even a remote guess as to the projected shortfall, the number tossed out last night was $400K. There is no reason to consider this rational or likely accurate, but if it was, we would be talking about something less than $400 per home, once, to prevent our touching the reserve. Are you OK with that? It's vastly less than $30-$40 per year per home for 30 years. (You forgot to mention the 30 years commitment bit.)

    Fred

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  6. Fred, I did not forget about the 30 years or more likely 20 years commit (we'll be lucky to get a 30 year loan with no prepay penalties at that rate), what I am saying is that it is easy to add 40 dollars per year to our tax bill and then IF we can get more revenues for the annex or from raising property values we can prepay that loan in less time, probably half the time. It is done all the time with homes and it is the conservative approach to financing. The non ad valorem tax comes because the ad valorem tax rate has a cap and you cannot go on top of that cap and we're almost maxed out there. I would listen to people that are accountants or tax experts on this matter, my opinion is not more than what I get from life experience. This is an important opportunity to do legacy work for the Village and if we wait it'll cost more every year. I am sure the 5 of you will come to a vote and get it done one way or another, the devil as always is in the details.

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  7. Jorge,

    What I'm saying is this. Assuming you're right about the numbers (there is no reason to make any assumptions about the numbers), the choice you're illustrating is to pay $400 now or $800 over 20 years. You're further suggesting that we might not really have to pay for 20 years, because we can pay off the loan early and without penalty. I myself don't know if this option is as available for municipal loans as it is for personal/mortgage loans, but let's assume it is. The question still remains as to how the Village is going to get the money to pay for this (principal and interest) every year. We don't have it now. How will we have it every year starting next year? If you're further assuming we will succeed in annexing, so am I, but even if we do, the first year or two might not result in considerable extra revenue. I'm sure it will result in some extra revenue, but I have no way to know if it will be enough to pay the loan.

    Now what you could do is remind me that we have a reserve into which we can dip, if we don't quite make it every year. And that's true. But why wouldn't we just do that now and be done with it? The fact is, the numbers we looked at were about $830K for the annex and about $300K for the renovation. So that's about $1.2M. The total grant plus our contribution is $1.1M, so we're really close. We're only short about $100K. It's easy to take that from $425K, and I think that's what we should do.

    Because I completely agree with you about the legacy we will leave for the Village. Let's hope that legacy isn't a big bill.

    Fred

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  8. Fred,

    Borrowing the money is the best solution for two reasons as discussed below.

    1) Without sufficient reserves the Village will be in violation of a resolution 2012-25 (pasted below) passed to have a minimum of 15% of the following year’s budget. If you include the Sanitation fund this is approx. $450K, further as I recall this is a recommended guideline by our auditors as well. So we would be in violation of a resolution passed by a prior commission and the Auditors recommendation. http://www.biscayneparkfl.gov/vertical/sites/%7BD1E17BCD-1E01-4F7D-84CD-7CACF5F8DDEE%7D/uploads/RESO_2012-25.pdf

    2) Interest rates are still low but they are steadily increasing. We may never see the cost to borrow funds this low in the foreseeable future: This is still cheap money to borrow. If you amortize $400K over 10 years the annual payments at 3.75% are approx. $48K, for a 15 year amortization it drops to approx. $35K. This is a number that the Village should be able to provide for in the budget, especially if we are successful in the annexation proposal.

    Based on the foregoing the use of the reserves is not an option.


    Chuck

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  9. Fred,

    A comment on the potential shortfall and a follow up on what Jorge posted above. We don't know if we will need $400K, as Jorge pointed out it was a number throw around as the worst case scenario. I don't believe it will be $400K and I also don't believe it will be $100K, but somewhere in the middle. The Administration working with the lender should be able to work out an arrangement where we only draw down on the funds as needed to use for the construction and contents of the annex building and log cabin needed to complete the project.

    Chuck

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  10. Chuck,

    Permit me to disagree with you. Our budget is about $2.2M. 15% is about $330K. Right now, before we do any better (which you and I agree we would have to do), we have about $425K ($498K before the end of this month, during which time new ad valorem comes in). So we have anywhere from $95K to $165K that is not spoken for and which guidelines do not suggest we keep on hand. Right in there is about what the overage is. And we collect more money every month, with dwindling yearly ad valorems and continuous non ad valorems. We have the money. And we don't even have to have it for a few more months or so, by which time we will have even more ad valorem and non ad valorem.

    It's not relevant that now is a good time to borrow. We do not have reliable means to pay back. And paying back is not only the borrowed amount, but interest, too. What we want to do will not earn us any money we aren't already earning. If we can't do it now, we can't do it in the future. It would be different if we wanted the money to build something that made money: an attraction, museum, parking lot, or something else that once constructed would then generate new income. But without that, there is no theory by which we are able to repay a loan, with interest..

    Now you do mention the other important variable: annexation. This would make a lot of difference, but we didn't annex yet, we have no real idea if or when we will, and we can't project when the new revenue gets high enough to spill into something like loan repayment. It's not certain or imminent, and I don't think we should rely on it. The loan, if we did it that way, would have to be in the next six months. Annexation won't be.

    Fred

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  11. On another matter, just in case the followers don't remember, the time stamp on this blog is on PST.

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  13. I stand corrected the fiscal year end Sept 2015 budget is approx $2.5M so 15% would be $375K. I included the sanitation fund expenditures in the first calculation in error. Having stated that I think the minimum should be greater than 15% so we are not going to agree on this point in any case.

    As I stated at the Dec 9th meeting, I would not like to see reserves spent on this project, borrowing is the correct route to take and money is not going to get any cheaper.

    Chuck

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  14. Yes, I think it's fair to agree to disagree.

    Fred

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